The ongoing ICC World Cup still has another four matches left before its league stage officially comes to an end and makes way for the knockouts. The drama surrounding the qualification to the semi-finals however, might have already come to an end with New Zealand’s victory over Sri Lanka on Thursday.
World Cup 2023: News | Schedule | Results | Points table
India, South Africa and Australia had already confirmed their place in the knockouts, with the Men in Blue the first of the lot to do so. As many as three teams — New Zealand, Pakistan and Afghanistan — were in contention for the fourth semi-final spot heading into the business end of the Round-Robin stage.
The Black Caps had the advantage of a superior Net Run Rate over Pakistan and Afghanistan, and a victory even by the narrowest of margins would have helped them qualify for the semi-finals for the fifth straight World Cup.
New Zealand, however, would end up doing one better — bowling Sri Lanka out for a modest 171 and chasing the target down with more than half of their overs remaining despite losing wickets in a heap along the way.
The victory over the 1996 world champions, who remain ninth in the 10-team table and could finish at the bottom if Netherlands beat India on Sunday, has given New Zealand’s NRR a massive boost.
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It has also nearly made it impossible for Pakistan and Afghanistan to surge ahead and finish at the fourth spot in their remaining matches against England and South Africa respectively.
Here’s a detailed look at what Pakistan and Afghanistan need to do in order to leapfrog the Kiwis on the points table:
— Assuming Pakistan bat first against England and post 300 on the board, they need to bowl the defending champions out for 13! Pakistan need to win by 287 runs for their current NRR (+0.036) to overtake that of New Zealand (+0.743).
— If England bat first, Pakistan will have to win with 284 deliveries remaining for them to eclipse New Zealand’s NRR.
Pakistan now has to beat England at the Eden Gardens on Saturday by an #unattainable margin
by around 287 runs while batting 1st
or
by about 284 balls to spare while chasing!#NZvsSL #NZvsSL #SLvNZ #SLvsNZ#CWC #CWC2023 #CWC23 #PakvsEng #PakvEng #EngvsPak #CricketTwitter— Mohandas Menon (@mohanstatsman) November 9, 2023
— The task is even more Herculean for the Afghans, the only team still in contention with an NRR in the negative (-0.338). Hashmatullah Shahidi’s men to defeat second-ranked South Africa by a whopping 438 runs in their final league game on Friday in Ahmedabad for them to advance to the knockouts.
It’s not the first time Pakistan are faced with such absurd equations for them to pip New Zealand to the World Cup semi-finals. It is precisely what had happened in the 2019 edition in England, where the Sarfaraz Ahmed-led side were left needing to beat Bangladesh by a margin in excess of 300 runs in their final league game.
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